Twenty conversations and one threshold
Market validation: the seven day test before you build
Market validation is proving that a specific group of people has a problem they already spend money or serious time on, and that they will commit to your solution before it exists. It takes about a week and needs two things: twenty real conversations with people who have the problem, and a commitment test where someone gives you money, calendar time or a signature. Everything else, including waitlist signups and enthusiastic feedback, is noise.
- ◆Time needed: about seven days of concentrated work
- ◆Sample size that is usually enough: twenty conversations with the actual buyer
- ◆Valid signals: a deposit, a pre order, a signed letter of intent, a booked paid pilot
- ◆Invalid signals: waitlist emails, 'I would definitely use that', social media engagement
Validation goes wrong in a predictable way. Founders ask people whether they like the idea, people are polite, and the founder hears permission to spend six months building. The fix is not more research. It is asking about the past instead of the future, and then asking for a commitment.
This is the seven day version I use.
The workbook version of this guide
This page explains the thinking. The Launch Workbook makes you do it: seven modules with fields you fill in, saved as you go.
Day one: write the assumption you are actually testing
Write one sentence: a specific group of people has a specific problem, currently solves it a specific way, and that way costs them a specific amount. Every vague word in that sentence is a place your validation will fail quietly.
Then write your threshold, before you talk to anyone. How many of twenty conversations have to confirm the problem, and how many commitments do you need, for you to proceed. Deciding this afterwards is how founders talk themselves into a bad year.
Days two to five: twenty conversations that produce facts
Talk to people who have the problem right now, not to founders, advisors or friends. Twenty is enough to see a pattern and few enough to do in four days.
The rule is to ask about behaviour that already happened. What did you do the last time this came up, what did it cost you, what did you try before, why did you stop. Never ask whether they would buy something, because the answer is worthless and always positive.
- ·Ask: when did this last happen, and what did you do
- ·Ask: what does it cost you today, in money or hours
- ·Ask: what have you already tried, and why did you stop using it
- ·Ask: who else in the company feels this, and who would sign off on paying
- ·Never ask: would you use this, does this sound useful, what would you pay
Day six: run the commitment test
Put up one page that describes a specific outcome for a specific person, names a price, and asks for something real. A deposit, a pre order, a paid pilot, a signed letter of intent, or a booked implementation call. Send it to the twenty people you spoke to and to a small, targeted group beyond them.
The uncomfortable ask is the whole point. It is the only step that separates a problem people have from a problem people will pay you to remove.
Day seven: read it against the threshold you set
Compare what happened to the number you wrote on day one, and do not move the line. There are only three honest outcomes: the problem and the willingness to pay are both confirmed, the problem is real but your solution is wrong, or the problem is not painful enough.
The second outcome is the most common and the most valuable, and it is invisible to anyone who skipped this week and started building.
What validation cannot tell you
It cannot tell you whether you can reach these people at a cost that works, whether the market is big enough to matter, or whether you will still care in two years. Those are separate questions and they need separate answers before you commit a year.
It also does not survive contact with a different buyer. Validating with one segment and then selling to another means you validated nothing.
Signals ranked by how much they are worth
| Signal | Worth | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Money paid up front | Very high | It is the exact behaviour you need repeated |
| Signed pilot with a date | High | Commitment with a cost to breaking it |
| A booked, prepared call | Medium | Calendar time is a real cost |
| A detailed complaint about the current tool | Medium | Evidence the problem is live |
| Waitlist email | Low | Costs nothing, predicts nothing |
| 'That sounds really useful' | None | Politeness |
Common questions
What is market validation?
Proving that a defined group of people has a problem they already spend money or time on, and that they will commit to your solution before it is built.
How do you validate a startup idea before building?
Write the assumption and a success threshold, hold twenty conversations that ask what people did in the past rather than what they would do in future, then run a commitment test asking for money, a signature or a booked pilot, and compare the result to the threshold you set in advance.
How many customer interviews are enough?
Around twenty with the actual buyer. Patterns usually appear by the tenth, and twenty is enough to be confident while still fitting in a week.
Is a waitlist good validation?
No. A waitlist signup costs the person nothing and predicts almost nothing about payment. Ask for a deposit, a pre order or calendar time instead.
What if validation says no?
Usually it says the problem is real but your solution is wrong, which is the most useful outcome available and takes a week rather than a year to discover. Change the solution, keep the buyer, and run the test again.
You can read this, or you can do it with someone who has done it three times.
Zero to Entrepreneur is an eight week live cohort with 12 seats. You finish with a product live, real customers, and the numbers to decide what happens next.